1. Net present value (NPV)
Net present value (NPV) measures how much future expected revenue (cash flows) is worth today’s dollars. You'll estimate future cash flows via demand planning and then discount these estimated cash flows to present value. The initial investment cost is subtracted from the discounted present value, resulting in the project's NPV.
A positive NPV means the project is financially worthwhile, while a negative NPV suggests that the financials cannot justify the investment.
2. Internal rate of return (IRR)
The internal rate of return (IRR) is the discount rate at which the NPV equals zero. This rate, or the hurdle rate, is the amount a project must earn to be profitable.
A capital investment with an expected rate of return higher than the IRR would produce a positive NPV and be profitable for the business. Projects with rates of return below the IRR are not profitable.
3. Payback period
The payback period is the expected time to recoup the initial investment. It is a quick, simple assessment of an investment's liquidity, with longer payback periods correlating with more illiquid ventures.
4. Discounted cash flow (DCF)
Discounted cash flow (DCF) stipulates that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow due to its earnings potential. DCF accounts for this by discounting future cash flows back to present value via a discount rate.
DCF is a core component of the NPV calculation discussed earlier. DCF provides the present value of expected future cash flows. The NPV of a capital investment is the DCF less the initial investment costs.
5. Other important considerations for investment analysis
In addition to the financial considerations previously mentioned, there are additional factors that should enter into a capital investment analysis:
- Sensitivity analysis: A sensitivity analysis evaluates how a change in one factor can change the expected profitability of a project. For example, a sensitivity analysis may shift the discount rate up or down a percentage point to gauge how that would impact the NPV of the project.
- Real options: NPV decisions assume a fixed decision. Flexibility is a key element of the business decision-making process. Real options add value by recognizing that businesses are not obligated to take a certain action but can defer, switch, or abandon a project altogether.
- Decision trees: These trees map out all possibilities, decisions, and outcomes in a branching path structure. Decision trees help businesses measure the expected value of each step and better incorporate probabilities and risk into their analysis.
- Environmentally sustainable investment analysis: Making a profit is a business's fundamental purpose, but it isn’t the only issue that companies must consider. The final capital investment analysis should incorporate any social and financial costs related to environmental impact.