Okay, update on this.
I looked closer, and the liability for August 2023 *was* created but it's already by reconciled by the payment made today. Yet I still have an unreconciled transaction to for the tax payment to deal with, and obviously when I reconcile it to the appropriate liability, I create a negative likability.
So I'm totally lost re: what to do now (but at least it feels like a simpler problem to solve).
