How to measure market risks
To measure market risks, analysts use the value-at-risk (VaR) method. VaR is a statistical risk management technique that quantifies the potential loss and the probability of a loss occurring. While this form of measurement is widely used among economic analysts, there are some shortcomings when it comes to predicting long-term effects.
There are multiple ways to use this measurement, including:
Historical Method: This method uses historical data to compare to present events. It reorganizes historical returns into order from worst to best and then assumes that history will repeat itself.
Variance-Covariance Method: The Variance-Covariance method plots a normal distribution curve by estimating the expected average of a return and a standard deviation. This curve is then compared to actual returns and then predictions are made about any future market risks.
Monte Carlo Simulation: This method uses a logarithmic equation to model movements of asset prices. The building blocks of this simulation are determining the drift, standard deviation, variance, and average price movements. The Monte Carlo Simulation equation is as follows:
Periodic Daily Return = ln (Day’s Price / Previous Day’s Price)