Hi there amharward. I know things can seem a bit off, however, you seemed to have caught the pattern yourself since, with next-day deposits, the cutoff time is 3 pm Pacific Time.
If the payment is processed before 3 pm PT then it will be deposited the next day, if not it will be deposited in two business days.
Here are some articles as well that can help guide you a bit on when your deposits will come with QuickBooks Merchant services:
If you navigate to the Find out when QuickBooks Payments deposits customer payments article, you can find information in Step 2 to also check the status of your current deposits. Doing this will help you get a better understanding of how the deposits flow.
The same article also shows all the information about deposit times, if perhaps you haven't already signed up for next day deposits I recommend checking out the bottom article for step by step instructions on setting up the next day deposit feature.
If you need anything else, just leave a reply below. Enjoy the rest of your day as well.