Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index, October 2024

October 2024: Revenue Index | Employment Index

Revenue Index

In September 2024, average real monthly revenue for US small businesses with one to nine employees was $51,700 in 2017 dollars, a monthly decrease of 0.58%. The Index is deflated to 2017 dollars and seasonally adjusted to remove the impact of inflation and track real changes in revenue.

Small business revenue decreased in eight of the 12 sectors tracked by the Index, and the remaining four sectors saw zero or near zero growth in September. The education and health services sector (NAICS 61, 62) contracted the fastest, with a monthly decline of 0.20%. Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33) was the only sector to see revenue growth, with a monthly increase of 0.04%.

Likewise, small business revenue dipped in five of the eight regions tracked by the Index, with zero or near zero growth in the remaining three. Revenue contracted the fastest in New England, decreasing by 0.16% month-over-month (-$100).

Of the 20 states tracked, 13 saw a decrease in small business revenue in September. Revenue contracted the fastest in California, declining 0.30% (-$200). Of the seven states to see revenue growth in September, Wisconsin appears as a bright spot with the fastest and largest monthly increase of 0.54% ($300).

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Employment Index

In September, employment for US small businesses with one to nine employees decreased by 4,800 jobs compared to August (a decline of 0.04% month-over-month). These small businesses now employ 12,977,300 people, based on the Index’s latest projection from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released in July.⁺

Employment decreased in 10 of the 12 sectors tracked by the Index. The manufacturing sector (NAICS 31-33) contracted the fastest, with a decline of 0.09% and 1,100 jobs. For the second month in a row, leisure and hospitality (NAICS 71-72) had the largest net job loss—down by 1,300 jobs, a monthly decline of 0.08%.

Small business employment declined in five of the eight regions and in 14 of the 20 states tracked by the Index. The Far West saw the largest and fastest decline, with a monthly decrease of 0.23% (-5,000 jobs). Oregon, Washington, and California are among the top four states tracked by the Index with the fastest contraction.

Across the country, employment spiked in the Great Lakes, increasing by 0.27% and adding 5,100 jobs in September. Of the 20 states tracked, Wisconsin saw the fastest increase, adding 700 jobs.

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More information

Get more data insights from the interactive Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index dashboard.

Media inquiries

Media contact details for QuickBooks in the US can be found here on the Intuit website.

Canada Index

The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index is also published monthly in Canada. Get the latest small business employment insights for Canada here. 

UK Index

The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index is also published monthly in the UK. Get the latest small business employment insights for the UK here.

About the Index

The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index is a timely new measure of small business employment and hiring in the US, Canada, and the UK. The Index launched in March 2023 and is updated monthly. The Index uses purpose-built economic models to normalize anonymized QuickBooks data to reflect the general population of small businesses in each country; it is not a reflection of Intuit’s business. The Index was developed in collaboration with leading economist Professor Ufuk Akcigit and an international team of researchers and academics.

Methodology

The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index creates aggregated data outputs from a sample of anonymized QuickBooks Online Payroll customer records which are calibrated using statistical methods to create modeled results which better reflect the general population of small businesses in each country, as represented by published official statistics. Statistical adjustment ensures the Index truly reflects employment and job vacancy changes rather than trends in the QuickBooks customer base. 

Read more or download the full methodology here. 

Rounded values

Total and monthly changes in employment and job vacancies have been rounded to the nearest hundred. Monthly changes and growth rates are calculated before total employment or job vacancy values are rounded. Rates have been rounded to the nearest hundredth.

Seasonal adjustments

The Index’s data insights are seasonally adjusted to limit the effect of seasonal patterns in employment and hiring throughout the year, which lead to regular fluctuations in workforce growth and contraction.

Employment growth formula

Employment growth(t) = [Employment(t)-Employment(t-1)]/[0.5*Employment(t)+0.5*Employment(t-1)]

*Employment levels

The Index produces a monthly prediction of employment growth rates by country, region, and sector. In order to translate these growth rates into the number of jobs/vacancies gained or lost, the growth rates are multiplied by the prior month’s predicted employment levels, except during the months when official statistics are published. During those months, the latest official employment levels that have been reported are used in the calculation instead of the Index’s prior month’s predicted employment levels. As a result, the Index’s predicted total employment levels may at times differ from the predicted growth rates. Official statistics are published at different frequencies depending on the country ranging from monthly to quarterly.

⁺Note: The Index’s economic model is refreshed every 2 to 4 months when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics updates its employment statistics. Official statistics are an essential component of the Index because they make it nationally representative of small business employment. Whenever they are updated, this provides new information that wasn’t previously available, which is why the Index’s latest estimates for small business employment sometimes differ from older estimates. The latest estimates always provide the most accurate picture of small business employment or hiring because they include the most up-to-date official statistics.

Time series

The Index uses data going back to January 2015 in the US and Canada and to January 2018 in the UK. Published at the earliest opportunity every month, the Index shows the number of people employed by small businesses (in the US and Canada) or the number of job vacancies at small businesses (in the UK) in the previous month and how that number has changed since the month before. The Index helps to eliminate almost all of the time lags in official statistics by providing estimated projections of what those statistics will ultimately show when they are published.

Sample sizes

The total sample across all three countries is around 424,000 small businesses. The US sample is almost 333,000 small businesses. The Canadian sample is almost 66,000 small businesses. The UK sample is almost 25,000 small businesses. The minimum sample sizes for regions or sectors to be included in the Index are 1,000 small businesses in the US, 800 small businesses in Canada, and 200 small businesses in the UK. 

Target populations

In the US and UK, the Index targets the populations of small businesses with one to nine employees. In Canada, the target population is small businesses with one to 19 employees. The differences ensure the Index’s data insights are consistent with official statistics in each country, which are used for benchmarking during the calibration process. Timely data insights for these populations of small businesses are particularly valuable since most datasets fail to cover this portion of the economy well. Please note: Unlike in the US and Canada, the UK Index uses job vacancy data for calibration rather than employment data because official employment statistics are not currently available for small businesses on a monthly basis. 

External data sources

External data sources used alongside the samples of anonymized QuickBooks Online Payroll customer data include:

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics (BED) and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) 
• U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis regions

Geographic regions

• USA data insights are divided into Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) regions

Industry sectors

• USA data insights are available by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) sectors 

Disclaimer

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