Limitations of free cash flow analysis
While FCF can be a useful metric, it’s not perfect. Let’s look at some of its limitations.
Depreciation
Unlike a metric like net income, FCF doesn’t account for depreciation. Why? It’s a non-cash expense, meaning it’s a business cost that doesn’t involve a cash transaction. FCF focuses on actual cash flows, sometimes making a business’s FCF seem higher than its net income.
For instance, if a company buys a piece of equipment for $100,000, it might depreciate the cost over 10 years — i.e., $10,000 is deducted from the net income each year. However, since they spent the cash upfront, FCF will show the full $100,000 in the year of the purchase but none in the following years. As a result, the FCF might look stronger in the subsequent years because it doesn’t account for the ongoing depreciation expense, while net income still reflects the annual depreciation deduction.
So, relying solely on FCF without factoring in depreciation can skew your understanding of a company’s financial position.
Industry-specific considerations
Different industries have varying levels of capital expenditures. For example, a financially stable construction company may have low FCF, but it’s likely because they have to invest heavily in machinery, equipment, and maintenance. On the other hand, a struggling e-commerce platform may have a high FCF because it operates primarily online and doesn’t require a huge investment in physical assets.
If you’re looking at FCF without considering the context, you might assume the e-commerce platform is doing better than the construction company, even though the opposite is true. That’s why you must look beyond FCF and consider the industry norms to fully understand a company’s financial health.
One-time events
Sometimes, your company might have to make a one-off, non-recurring payment. Let’s say your business sells a warehouse, which would boost your FCF for that year. While this surge of cash might make your financials look strong, it’s not a true representation of your ongoing cash flow from your core operations. This spike is temporary and likely won’t continue in future years. If these one-time events happen, just be sure to consider them so you don’t draw inaccurate conclusions about your financial performance.
Growth and expansion
It’s important to know that a low free cash flow doesn’t mean a business is failing. Successful companies will see a drop in their free cash flow amounts during periods of growth. Acquisitions and new product launches, for example, will result in a temporary dip in free cash flow.
Take a look at the natural fluctuations of a big, successful company like Apple, for example. As the chart shows, over a five-year period, the company’s free cash flow dips routinely before rising again.