Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index, July 2025

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Employment Index

In June 2025, employment for US small businesses with one to nine employees decreased by 19,400 jobs compared to May (a 0.15% decrease month over month). These small businesses now employ 12,746,000 people, based on the Index’s updated projection from the latest available official statistics (released in May) which end in September 2024.⁺ 

Small business employment decreased in 11 out of the 12 sectors tracked by the Index. The largest and fastest decrease was in leisure and hospitality (NAICS 71-72), with a monthly decline of 0.32% (-5,300 jobs). The agriculture, natural resources, and mining sector (NAICS 11; 21) was the exception, where small business employment was unchanged.

Additionally, small business employment declined across all eight regions of the US. New England (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont) saw the fastest decline, with a monthly decrease of 0.29% (-1,800 jobs). Likewise, employment decreased in 18 of the 20 states tracked by the Index. Oregon had the fastest decline, contracting by 0.31% month-over-month (-500 jobs). The two states with a bit of growth were Virginia and Ohio, each with an 0.01% increase in small business employment.

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Revenue Index

In June 2025, average real monthly revenue for US small businesses with one to nine employees was $51,280 (in 2017 dollars), a monthly decrease of 4.76%. The Index is deflated to 2017 dollars to remove the impact of inflation and track real changes in revenue. It is also seasonally adjusted.

Small business revenue decreased in all 12 sectors tracked by the Index. The utilities sector (NAICS 22) decreased the fastest, with a monthly decline of 10.19% (a decrease of $10,920 per business). 

Small business revenue also decreased in all eight US regions and all 20 US states tracked by the Index — decreasing the fastest in New England (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont) with a decline of 5.70% (a decrease of $3,140 per business). Revenue decreased the fastest in Oregon, with a monthly decline of 9.82% (a decrease of $4,410 per business).

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More information

Get more data insights from the interactive Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index dashboard.

Media inquiries

Media contact details for QuickBooks in the US can be found here on the Intuit website.

Canada Index

The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index is also published monthly in Canada. Get the latest small business employment insights for Canada here. 

UK Index

The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index is also published monthly in the UK, typically one week later than in the US and Canada. Get the latest small business employment insights for the UK here.

About the Index

The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index tracks monthly changes in small business employment and revenue, published in the US, Canada, and the UK. The Index is powered by anonymized data from 533,000 QuickBooks customers, official statistics, and robust economic models developed by Professor Ufuk Akcigit and an international team of independent economists. The economic models normalize anonymized QuickBooks customer data to reflect the general population of small businesses in each country; it is not a reflection of Intuit’s business.

Methodology

The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index creates aggregated data outputs from a sample of anonymized QuickBooks Online Payroll customer records which are calibrated using statistical methods to create modeled results which better reflect the general population of small businesses in each country, as represented by published official statistics. Statistical adjustment ensures the Index truly reflects employment and job vacancy changes rather than trends in the QuickBooks customer base. 

Read more or download the full methodology here. 

Rounded values

Total and monthly changes in employment and job vacancies have been rounded to the nearest hundred. Monthly changes and growth rates are calculated before total employment or job vacancy values are rounded. Rates have been rounded to the nearest hundredth.

Seasonal adjustments

The Index’s data insights are seasonally adjusted to limit the effect of seasonal patterns in employment and hiring throughout the year, which lead to regular fluctuations in workforce growth and contraction.

Employment growth formula

Employment growth(t) = [Employment(t)-Employment(t-1)]/[0.5*Employment(t)+0.5*Employment(t-1)]

*Employment levels

The Index produces a monthly prediction of employment growth rates by country, region, and sector. In order to translate these growth rates into the number of jobs/vacancies gained or lost, the growth rates are multiplied by the prior month’s predicted employment levels, except during the months when official statistics are published. During those months, the latest official employment levels that have been reported are used in the calculation instead of the Index’s prior month’s predicted employment levels. As a result, the Index’s predicted total employment levels may at times differ from the predicted growth rates. Official statistics are published at different frequencies depending on the country ranging from monthly to quarterly.

⁺Note: The Index’s economic model is refreshed every 2 to 4 months when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics updates its employment statistics. Official statistics are an essential component of the Index because they make it nationally representative of small business employment. Whenever they are updated, this provides new information that wasn’t previously available, which is why the Index’s latest estimates for small business employment sometimes differ from older estimates. The latest estimates always provide the most accurate picture of small business employment or hiring because they include the most up-to-date official statistics.

June 2025 methodology update

In June 2025, a small but important update was made to the methodology for the US small business employment index to continuously increase accuracy levels on the model that provides monthly employment estimates. From June 2025, the anonymized payroll data provided by these businesses will only be included in the Index’s sample when they use QuickBooks Online Payroll in two consecutive months, excluding months when businesses join or leave the platform. As before, the Index’s sample will continue to be benchmarked against official statistics to ensure the monthly estimates show employment for all US businesses with 1-9 employees, not just for QuickBooks customers, and all data is aggregated prior to publication. In the US, the size of the sample is currently 420,000 businesses using the QuickBooks platform. Further details of this update to the methodology can be found here.

Time series

The Index uses data going back to January 2015 in the US and Canada and to January 2018 in the UK. Published at the earliest opportunity every month, the Index shows the number of people employed by small businesses (in the US and Canada) or the number of job vacancies at small businesses (in the UK) in the previous month and how that number has changed since the month before. The Index helps to eliminate almost all of the time lags in official statistics by providing estimated projections of what those statistics will ultimately show when they are published.

Sample sizes

The total sample across all three countries is 533,000 small businesses. The US sample is 420,000 small businesses. The Canadian sample is 87,000 small businesses. The UK sample is 26,000 small businesses. The minimum sample sizes for regions or sectors to be included in the Index are 1,000 small businesses in the US, 800 small businesses in Canada, and 200 small businesses in the UK.

Target populations

In the US and UK, the Index targets the populations of small businesses with one to nine employees. In Canada, the target population is small businesses with one to 19 employees. The differences ensure the Index’s data insights are consistent with official statistics in each country, which are used for benchmarking during the calibration process. Timely data insights for these populations of small businesses are particularly valuable since most datasets fail to cover this portion of the economy well. Please note: Unlike in the US and Canada, the UK Index uses job vacancy data for calibration rather than employment data because official employment statistics are not currently available for small businesses on a monthly basis. 

External data sources

External data sources used alongside the samples of anonymized QuickBooks Online Payroll customer data include:

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics (BED) and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) 
• U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis regions

Geographic regions

• USA data insights are divided into Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) regions

Industry sectors

• USA data insights are available by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) sectors 

Disclaimer

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