In the US in January, employment for small businesses with one to nine employees decreased by 14,700 jobs. These small businesses now employ 13,266,300 people. This reverses the positive growth seen in December—but continues the trend of strong year-over-year growth.
Compared to December’s small business employment total of 13,281,000 jobs, the monthly decrease in January was 0.11%.*
In January, small business employment decreased in 11 of the 12 sectors covered by the Index. The wholesale sector (NAICS 42) continues its growth spurt from November and December, creating an additional 800 jobs in January with a monthly growth rate of 0.15%.
Information (NAICS 51) and transportation and warehousing (NAICS 48-49) are the two sectors that contracted the fastest, each with a monthly decline of 0.65% and a combined loss of 2,200 jobs. Agriculture, natural resources, and mining (NAICS 11; 21) was close behind with a monthly decline of 0.52% and a loss of 1,000 jobs. The leisure and hospitality sector (NAICS 71-72) saw the largest number of jobs lost in January, with 6,900 fewer jobs than in December, a monthly decline of 0.45%.
Unlike December, when small business employment increased in nearly every region of the US, the reverse was true in January. Small business employment decreased in six of the eight US regions. New England (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont) and the Great Lakes (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) were the only two regions to see growth in January, with a monthly increase of 0.30% (1,900 jobs) and 0.06% (1,200 jobs), respectively.
The Rocky Mountain region saw the fastest contraction with a monthly decline of 0.39% and a loss of 1,900 jobs. But the Far West saw the largest decrease with a loss of 4,400 jobs (a decline of 0.20%).
Get more data insights from the interactive Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index dashboard.
Media contact details for QuickBooks in the US can be found here on the Intuit website.
The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index is also published monthly in Canada. Get the latest small business employment insights for Canada here.
The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index is also published monthly in the US. Get the latest small business employment insights for the UK here.
The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index is a timely new measure of small business employment and hiring in the US, Canada, and the UK. The Index launched in March 2023 and is updated monthly. The Index uses purpose-built economic models to normalize anonymized QuickBooks data to reflect the general population of small businesses in each country; it is not a reflection of Intuit’s business. The Index was developed in collaboration with leading economist Professor Ufuk Akcigit and an international team of researchers and academics.
The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index creates aggregated data outputs from a sample of anonymized QuickBooks Online Payroll customer records which are calibrated using statistical methods to create modeled results which better reflect the general population of small businesses in each country, as represented by published official statistics. Statistical adjustment ensures the Index truly reflects employment and job vacancy changes rather than trends in the QuickBooks customer base.
Read more or download the full methodology here.
Total and monthly changes in employment and job vacancies have been rounded to the nearest hundred. Monthly changes and growth rates are calculated before total employment or job vacancy values are rounded. Rates have been rounded to the nearest hundredth.
The Index’s data insights are seasonally adjusted to limit the effect of seasonal patterns in employment and hiring throughout the year, which lead to regular fluctuations in workforce growth and contraction.
Employment growth(t) = [Employment(t)-Employment(t-1)]/[0.5*Employment(t)+0.5*Employment(t-1)]
The Index produces a monthly prediction of employment growth rates by country, region, and sector. In order to translate these growth rates into the number of jobs/vacancies gained or lost, the growth rates are multiplied by the prior month’s predicted employment levels, except during the months when official statistics are published. During those months, the latest official employment levels that have been reported are used in the calculation instead of the Index’s prior month’s predicted employment levels. As a result, the Index’s predicted total employment levels may at times differ from the predicted growth rates. Official statistics are published at different frequencies depending on the country ranging from monthly to quarterly.
The Index uses data going back to January 2015 in the US and Canada and to January 2018 in the UK. Published at the earliest opportunity every month, the Index shows the number of people employed by small businesses (in the US and Canada) or the number of job vacancies at small businesses (in the UK) in the previous month and how that number has changed since the month before. The Index helps to eliminate almost all of the time lags in official statistics by providing estimated projections of what those statistics will ultimately show when they are published.
The total sample across all three countries is around 424,000 small businesses. The US sample is almost 333,000 small businesses. The Canadian sample is almost 66,000 small businesses. The UK sample is almost 25,000 small businesses. The minimum sample sizes for regions or sectors to be included in the Index are 1,000 small businesses in the US, 800 small businesses in Canada, and 200 small businesses in the UK.
In the US and UK, the Index targets the populations of small businesses with one to nine employees. In Canada, the target population is small businesses with one to 19 employees. The differences ensure the Index’s data insights are consistent with official statistics in each country, which are used for benchmarking during the calibration process. Timely data insights for these populations of small businesses are particularly valuable since most datasets fail to cover this portion of the economy well. Please note: Unlike in the US and Canada, the UK Index uses job vacancy data for calibration rather than employment data because official employment statistics are not currently available for small businesses on a monthly basis.
External data sources used alongside the samples of anonymized QuickBooks Online Payroll customer data include:
This content is for information purposes only and should not be considered legal, accounting or tax advice, or a substitute for obtaining such advice specific to your business. Additional information and exceptions may apply. Applicable laws may vary by region, state or locality. No assurance is given that the information is comprehensive in its coverage or that it is suitable in dealing with a customer’s particular situation. Intuit does not have any responsibility for updating or revising any information presented herein. Accordingly, the information provided should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research. Intuit does not warrant that the material contained herein will continue to be accurate nor that it is completely free of errors when published. Readers should verify statements before relying on them.
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