Why we built the Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index: Insights from the team behind the data

In partnership with: Simon Worsfold

Across the U.S., small businesses fuel innovation, create jobs, and strengthen communities. Yet, for years, the data capturing their performance often arrived too late to help them make real-time decisions. Employment figures could lag by months, and revenue data might not appear for years.

To address that delay, Intuit created the Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index. The Index is our proprietary research-driven resource and tool that delivers a reliable, up-to-date view of how small businesses are performing today.

Read on to learn why the Index was built, how it works, and how businesses across the country are using its insights to make smarter decisions in a fast-changing economy. You’ll also find additional perspective from Simon Worsfold, Head of Data Communications at Intuit QuickBooks, to help highlight the story behind the data.

What is the Small Business Index?

Developed by a team of economists led by world-renowned macroeconomist Professor Ufuk Akcigit, the Small Business Index measures small business employment and revenue trends in the United States, and small business employment trends in the United Kingdom and Canada.

Three key data sources power the Index:

• Aggregated QuickBooks Payroll and QuickBooks Online data representing more than half a million small businesses.
• Official government statistics used to benchmark and validate results.
• An economic model designed and maintained by Professor Akcigit’s independent research team.

Each month, the model processes anonymized data and produces aggregated estimates that reflect national, regional, and industry-level trends. Every release goes through a detailed review by 15 experts to ensure accuracy and reliability.

The story behind the Index and how it stands out

As Worsfold explains, the Index was designed to highlight small businesses’ contributions to the economy, identify challenges, and address the lack of timely data that can inform effective support and decision-making. The goal is to ensure important economic indicators are available in real-time.

What makes the Index different

According to Worsfold, the Index fills a long-standing knowledge gap: “Official employment data for small businesses is often six to nine months old, and revenue data can be five years behind.” QuickBooks wanted to create something that provides a clearer, more current view of what’s happening right now.

The Index also benefits from:

• Scale: Over half a million businesses provide a robust, diverse sample.
• Frequency: Monthly updates make the Index one of the most up-to-date sources of small business data.
• Expert collaboration: The partnership with Professor Akcigit’s team ensures rigorous, independent analysis.
• Real business data. It’s based on actual payroll and accounting activity, providing an unmatched level of timeliness and credibility.

As a result, the QuickBooks Small Business Index provides an early signal of changes in hiring or revenue before official government reports are released.

How the team gathers and analyzes data

Intuit’s data analytics team processes anonymized information from QuickBooks Payroll and QuickBooks Online and benchmark it against official statistics to ensure accuracy and representativeness. This is all done using economic models developed by Professor Akcigit’s team. Each release undergoes a comprehensive multi-step review before publication.

The Index currently tracks monthly small business employment in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. nationally, regionally, and by sector. In the U.S., the Index also tracks monthly revenue growth. Future plans include expanding the Index to include larger businesses, new metrics, and all 50 U.S. states.

How small business owners can use the Index

For small business owners, the Index is both a measure of the economy and a tool for comparison and planning. Each update offers context and clarity for business leaders navigating constant change. Here’s how savvy business owners are applying those insights in practical ways:

Benchmark performance and spot trends

The Index is designed to be actionable, giving small business owners insights into how their performance stacks up in a changing economy.

Worsfold emphasized that benchmarking is one of the most direct ways the Index helps business owners. It enables them to measure progress, identify trends, and make more informed, data-driven decisions. These insights can also be helpful for accountants with small business clients.

Beyond benchmarking, the data provides additional guidance for business owners, economists, policymakers, and others seeking to understand small business trends.

The Index also helps users:

• Track employment patterns. Owners can identify workforce changes in their state or sector that may affect hiring and retention strategies.
• Monitor and anticipate market and revenue shifts. Observing shifts in the market and revenue helps reveal both risks and emerging opportunities.
• Inform policy and awareness. By highlighting areas of success or struggle, the Index helps economists and policymakers better understand the realities of small business performance.

Leverage insights for planning and forecasting

The Index also supports long-term strategy. By aligning forecasts with fresh data, business leaders can turn learnings into action.

• Plan for growth. Identifying consistent patterns in hiring or revenue helps guide expansion, budgeting, and investment decisions.
• Align operations with demand. Data on sector or regional performance helps businesses match resources and inventory to changing conditions.
• Build stronger financial strategies. Reliable, up-to-date data gives lenders, investors, and advisors more confidence in business plans.

Longer-term insights from the Index

Want to see how it all comes together? Annual reports reveal how small businesses are adapting to economic shifts, new technologies, and policy changess.

Credit card use and employment trends

The Index has revealed several key trends shaping the small business economy. Among the most notable is how financing behavior and employment patterns have evolved in response to interest rates.

• Rising reliance on credit cards. When interest rates spiked, small businesses were already using credit cards as a primary source of financing.
• Growth fueled by credit. Businesses that had the most access to financing on credit cards saw up to 4% higher employment growth and 30% higher revenue growth, suggesting that credit can fuel expansion when used strategically.
• Risk of increasing debt. At the same time, payments slowed faster than spending and interest payments grew, exposing some to added financial strain.
• Employment pivot toward larger firms. Professor Akcigit also observed a movement of workers from smaller to larger businesses. While this may benefit employees through opportunities for improved pay and benefits, it raises concerns about the long-term strength of small business job creation—a critical driver of the overall economy.

Looking ahead: AI, broader coverage, and a better user experience

The Small Business Index is continually evolving. The next phase focuses on expanding its reach, refining its insights, and making the experience even more useful for small businesses. The goal is to scale its impact through deeper data, new technology, and a more accessible platform.

• Advancing AI insights. More than eight in ten small businesses now use AI tools regularly. The team behind the Index are currently assessing how this adoption affects hiring, cash flow, and overall performance. The results will also compare outcomes for AI users and non-users.
• Expanding state and global coverage. In the future, the goal is to expand the Index to include the remaining 30 U.S. states, add new revenue measures for the U.K. and Canada, and provide insights for larger businesses with up to 100 employees.
• Enhancing the online experience. Worsfold confirmed that improvements to the dashboard and data visualizations are also underway. The latest updates were made in July 2026, making the insights easier to access, interpret, and share.

## H2 QuickBooks is helping small businesses move forward

The Small Business Index ultimately helps small businesses, policymakers, and economists cut through uncertainty by highlighting what’s changing and where attention is needed most. With the newest measurements drawn from actual business activity, owners get a clearer view of the landscape—one that large corporations have relied on for decades. It’s a tool that helps small businesses stay tuned in, remain agile, and move toward what’s possible.

Stay ahead of small business trends. Explore the latest insights from the Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index.