In July, employment for US small businesses with one to nine employees increased by 3,300 jobs compared to June. These small businesses now employ 12,981,700 people, based on the Index’s latest projection from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released in July.⁺
The monthly increase in July was 0.03% compared to June’s revised small business employment total of 12,978,400 jobs. The revised total incorporates the latest, updated official statistics through December 2023. With these updated statistics, the Index now reveals some positive monthly growth rates in the first few months of 2024. In July, sectors such as construction created jobs but others, including leisure and hospitality, had declining employment.*
There was a mixed picture among the 12 sectors tracked by the Index, with six sectors expanding in July and the other six contracting. The construction sector (NAICS 23) created the most small business jobs—5,500 in total—with a monthly growth rate of 0.71%. The leisure and hospitality sector (NAICS 71-72) had the largest net loss—down by 4,500 jobs, a monthly decline of 0.28%. See how the other sectors performed in the table below.
In July, small business employment levels remained unchanged in two US regions (the Southwest and New England), declined in two (the Far West and the Mideast), but increased in the other four—as the map below shows. The Plains region (Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota) added the most small business jobs (2,100) and had the fastest monthly growth rate (0.23%).
The Index tracks small business employment in 20 US states. Among the eight states with rising small business employment, Wisconsin had the fastest monthly growth rate (0.28%) and largest increase (700 jobs). The table below shows how the other 19 states performed in July.
Get more data insights from the interactive Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index dashboard.
Media contact details for QuickBooks in the US can be found here on the Intuit website.
The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index is also published monthly in Canada. Get the latest small business employment insights for Canada here.
The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index is also published monthly in the UK. Get the latest small business employment insights for the UK here on August 8.
⁺ Note: The Index’s economic model is refreshed every 2 to 4 months when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics updates its employment statistics. Official statistics are an essential component of the Index because they make it nationally representative of small business employment. Whenever they are updated, this provides new information that wasn’t previously available, which is why the Index’s latest estimates for small business employment sometimes differ from older estimates. The latest estimates always provide the most accurate picture of small business employment or hiring because they include the most up-to-date official statistics.
The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index is a timely new measure of small business employment and hiring in the US, Canada, and the UK. The Index launched in March 2023 and is updated monthly. The Index uses purpose-built economic models to normalize anonymized QuickBooks data to reflect the general population of small businesses in each country; it is not a reflection of Intuit’s business. The Index was developed in collaboration with leading economist Professor Ufuk Akcigit and an international team of researchers and academics.
The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index creates aggregated data outputs from a sample of anonymized QuickBooks Online Payroll customer records which are calibrated using statistical methods to create modeled results which better reflect the general population of small businesses in each country, as represented by published official statistics. Statistical adjustment ensures the Index truly reflects employment and job vacancy changes rather than trends in the QuickBooks customer base.
Read more or download the full methodology here.
Total and monthly changes in employment and job vacancies have been rounded to the nearest hundred. Monthly changes and growth rates are calculated before total employment or job vacancy values are rounded. Rates have been rounded to the nearest hundredth.
The Index’s data insights are seasonally adjusted to limit the effect of seasonal patterns in employment and hiring throughout the year, which lead to regular fluctuations in workforce growth and contraction.
Employment growth(t) = [Employment(t)-Employment(t-1)]/[0.5*Employment(t)+0.5*Employment(t-1)]
The Index produces a monthly prediction of employment growth rates by country, region, and sector. In order to translate these growth rates into the number of jobs/vacancies gained or lost, the growth rates are multiplied by the prior month’s predicted employment levels, except during the months when official statistics are published. During those months, the latest official employment levels that have been reported are used in the calculation instead of the Index’s prior month’s predicted employment levels. As a result, the Index’s predicted total employment levels may at times differ from the predicted growth rates. Official statistics are published at different frequencies depending on the country ranging from monthly to quarterly.
The Index uses data going back to January 2015 in the US and Canada and to January 2018 in the UK. Published at the earliest opportunity every month, the Index shows the number of people employed by small businesses (in the US and Canada) or the number of job vacancies at small businesses (in the UK) in the previous month and how that number has changed since the month before. The Index helps to eliminate almost all of the time lags in official statistics by providing estimated projections of what those statistics will ultimately show when they are published.
The total sample across all three countries is around 424,000 small businesses. The US sample is almost 333,000 small businesses. The Canadian sample is almost 66,000 small businesses. The UK sample is almost 25,000 small businesses. The minimum sample sizes for regions or sectors to be included in the Index are 1,000 small businesses in the US, 800 small businesses in Canada, and 200 small businesses in the UK.
In the US and UK, the Index targets the populations of small businesses with one to nine employees. In Canada, the target population is small businesses with one to 19 employees. The differences ensure the Index’s data insights are consistent with official statistics in each country, which are used for benchmarking during the calibration process. Timely data insights for these populations of small businesses are particularly valuable since most datasets fail to cover this portion of the economy well. Please note: Unlike in the US and Canada, the UK Index uses job vacancy data for calibration rather than employment data because official employment statistics are not currently available for small businesses on a monthly basis.
External data sources used alongside the samples of anonymized QuickBooks Online Payroll customer data include:
This content is for information purposes only and should not be considered legal, accounting or tax advice, or a substitute for obtaining such advice specific to your business. Additional information and exceptions may apply. Applicable laws may vary by region, state or locality. No assurance is given that the information is comprehensive in its coverage or that it is suitable in dealing with a customer’s particular situation. Intuit does not have any responsibility for updating or revising any information presented herein. Accordingly, the information provided should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research. Intuit does not warrant that the material contained herein will continue to be accurate nor that it is completely free of errors when published. Readers should verify statements before relying on them.
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